CPAFIRE

Cash cushions, buckets and the order you spend your accounts

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TL;DR: A cash or short-term bond cushion of one to three years' spending can keep you from selling stocks in a downturn, at the cost of some long-run return. Pair it with a written refill rule and a deliberate withdrawal order across taxable, pre-tax, Roth and HSA accounts.

Educational only, not tax, legal, or investment advice. Examples are illustrations, not predictions. Rules and limits change; verify current figures and talk to a qualified professional about your situation.

Picture a castle. Inside the walls: your stocks, growing slowly like a well-tended garden. At the gate: a moat of cash. When Doctor Drawdown's army arrives, you don't send the gardeners out to fight. You live off the moat until she gets bored and leaves. That's the bucket strategy, minus the dragons.

CPA Warning Label: Cash is safe from market drops but not from inflation. A moat that's too big slowly turns into a very expensive swimming pool.

Why hold a cushion at all?

When you're withdrawing from a portfolio, selling stocks after a big decline locks in losses. That's the heart of sequence-of-returns risk. A cushion of cash or high-quality short-term bonds gives you something to spend while stocks recover, so you're less likely to sell at the worst time.

It also helps psychologically. Knowing next year's groceries are already in the bank makes market headlines much less interesting. Possibly even boring. Boring is the goal.

The classic three buckets

  1. Bucket 1 (now): one to two years of spending in cash or cash-like holdings.
  2. Bucket 2 (soon): a few more years in bonds or other steadier investments.
  3. Bucket 3 (later): long-term growth assets, mostly stocks.

Over time, you refill bucket 1 from buckets 2 and 3, ideally selling whichever has done well. The buckets are mostly a mental model: mathematically they're just an asset allocation with a cash slice. But mental models that stop you from panic-selling are worth a lot.

How big should the cushion be?

Common ranges run from one to three years of net spending, meaning spending minus any other reliable income. Illustration: if you spend $60,000 a year and earn $20,000 from part-time work, your net need is $40,000, and a two-year cushion is $80,000, not $120,000.

The trade-off: a bigger cushion reduces the chance of forced selling but holds more money in lower-returning assets. Consider:

  • How flexible is your spending? More flexibility, smaller cushion.
  • Do you have other income? Part-time work or a rental can act like a cushion.
  • How would you feel watching stocks fall 35%? Be honest.

Refill rules: write one down

A cushion without a refill rule is just a pile of cash with good intentions. Some rules people use:

  • Refill in good years: if stocks are up for the year (or above their prior high), sell enough to top up the cushion.
  • Pause in bad years: if stocks are down, spend from the cushion and don't refill.
  • Rebalancing-based: rebalance annually to a target allocation that includes the cash slice. You naturally sell what's up.

Pick one and write it on paper. During a crash, you'll want a note from a calmer version of yourself.

Withdrawal order across accounts

Separately from which asset you sell, there's which account you draw from. Early retirees often have taxable, pre-tax (traditional 401(k)/IRA), Roth and HSA accounts. The order affects your taxes for decades.

The conventional order

A traditional rule of thumb: spend taxable accounts first, then pre-tax, then Roth last, letting tax-advantaged accounts grow longer. It's a reasonable start but often not optimal for early retirees.

The bracket-filling approach

Many planners instead aim to keep taxable income fairly level across years. In low-income early-retirement years, they deliberately realize some pre-tax income, through withdrawals or Roth conversions, up to a target bracket, while covering the rest of spending from taxable accounts. The goal is to avoid a lifetime of very low taxes now and very high taxes later when required minimum distributions and Social Security stack up.

The health insurance constraint

If you buy coverage on the ACA marketplace, your income determines your premium tax credit. Withdrawal order and conversions need to be coordinated with that. See Health insurance before Medicare.

Where the HSA and Roth fit

Roth money and HSA receipt reimbursements are tax-free, so they're useful “flex” sources in years when you need extra cash without raising taxable income. See the HSA as a retirement account.

A sample annual routine

  1. Each January, estimate the year's spending and other income.
  2. Decide how much taxable income you want this year (for brackets and health insurance).
  3. Plan withdrawals and any Roth conversions to hit that target.
  4. Check the cushion: refill or pause according to your rule.
  5. Rebalance the rest of the portfolio.
  6. Set aside money for estimated tax payments.

That's it. About one afternoon a year, plus coffee. Spreadsheets are permitted but not required to have feelings about it.

FIRE Danger Scale

  • Level 1: written cushion size, refill rule and withdrawal order.
  • Level 3: no cushion and no plan, relying on “I'll figure it out if it happens.” It happens.
  • Level 4: ten years in cash “to be safe.” Inflation would like to thank you for your business.

What to do this week

  1. Calculate your net annual need: spending minus reliable other income.
  2. Choose a cushion size (in years) and write down your refill rule.
  3. List your accounts by tax type and sketch a draft withdrawal order for your first five retirement years.

The bottom line

A cushion buys time; a refill rule keeps it honest; a withdrawal order keeps the tax bill sensible. Together they make a FIRE plan sturdier without needing to predict the market, which is fortunate, because nobody can.

This article is general education and not advice. The cast (Captain Compound, Frugal Fran, Lavish Larry, Doctor Drawdown) is fictional, and so are the example households. Your numbers will differ.

Frequently asked questions

How much cash should an early retiree keep?

Common ranges are one to three years of net spending, meaning spending minus reliable other income. More flexibility or other income can justify a smaller cushion.

Does a bucket strategy improve returns?

Not necessarily. Its main benefit is reducing the chance of selling stocks during a downturn and making a plan easier to stick with. Holding more cash can lower long-run returns.

Which accounts should I withdraw from first in early retirement?

It depends. A common starting point is taxable accounts first, but many early retirees also realize some pre-tax income or Roth conversions each year to use low tax brackets, coordinated with health insurance subsidies.